NATS Case Study

Explore our case study to see how MCC helped NATS En Route and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) refine their financial modelling processes. From identifying critical calculation errors to improving methodologies and updating key inputs, our expertise ensured a more reliable framework for aviation price controls, addressing delays and strengthening financial decision-making.

What the Client Needed?

In 2021, NATS En Route required an in-depth review of its financial model to assess the accuracy and reliability of recent modifications. The model had been updated to reflect the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism, which adjusts revenues based on fluctuations in air traffic and the significant decline in air traffic due to COVID-19, which had major financial implications for NATS. To ensure confidence in the financial projections, NATS needed a full validation of the financial model, ensuring that the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism and other adjustments were correctly implemented.

How we Helped them?

Financial modelling and financial analysis

MCC played a pivotal role in helping NATS and the CAA strengthen their financial models, delivering:

  1. Comprehensive Model Review for NATS
    • Conducted an in-depth analysis of the traffic-risk-sharing mechanism and the model’s response to COVID-19-related traffic declines.
    • Identified 382 issues for NATS to investigate, highlighting areas where calculations and methodologies needed improvement.
    • Recommended new methods and updated data sources to ensure more accurate forecasting and decision-making.
  2. Board-Level Analysis and Recommendations
    • Reviewed key board presentations and conclusions to verify that they were supported by reliable model calculations.
    • Suggested methodology updates and refinements to improve the financial model’s credibility and accuracy.
  3. Support for CAA’s NR23 Price Control Model
    • Assisted the Civil Aviation Authority in designing, reviewing, and modifying a new model for NATS’ price control process.
    • Addressed financial model deficiencies that had delayed NR23 by six months, helping to bring the process back on track.
  4. Best Practice Implementation
    • Recommended model updates using industry best practices, ensuring future reliability and transparency.
    • Advised on the latest data sources and input methodologies to strengthen financial forecasting.

I was delighted that MCC's work was completed on time, and within budget, helping us deliver important changes and improvements, to the benefit of our stakeholders. ​ MCC's report is published on the CCC website.

- Bea Natzler
Team Leader at Climate Change Committee, UK

I am delighted to recommend MCC Economics. Specifically, I worked closely with PJ, who helped us with our Nuclear and CCUS projects. PJ helped us develop new policies and answer questions from our stakeholders. ​​His support helped us deliver important changes and improvements, to the benefit of our stakeholders.

- Gordon Hutcheson
Head of Nuclear Policy at Ofgem, UK

MCC Economics has helped us better understand the most important issues for our stakeholders, including: charges, shareholder returns, debt payments and inflation impacts.

- Leila N. Nasr
Section Head at Department of Energy, Abu Dhabi